Hope 2026

AI extinction, the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the situation in Gaza, overt manipulation by the US Republican party ahead of the midterms, the rise of the far right in Europe, worsening effects of global warming… that’s a lot — of negatives.

Is that what we should take from 2026? Hopefully not only.

Granted, quite a few current trends are anxiety-inducing. Long term factors like global warming for one: in Europe, we just witnessed an exceptionally hot summer, with a series of heat waves that (finally) made us contemplate the true risks of global warming. Shorter term factors include the rise of the far right, which gradually unfolded over the past decade and is now at a turning point: the 2024 French legislative elections saw a relative defeat for the far-right RN, while the German AfD just snatched a historic regional win, albeit equally relative: the party didn’t get an absolute majority and has yet to form a governing coalition.

The question is — what now?

Obviously, the upcoming midterms will be a sign. So will next year’s French presidential election. As well as the next steps in this AI war that is currently raging — although I am less concerned by that, being shockingly aligned with the US president. And measures taken to curb global warming, although these will be closely related to the aforementioned elections.

But the bigger picture is always the same: is the glass half full or not? Or, rather, more than half full? I still contend that it is. To paraphrase Martin Luther King, “The arc of the historical universe is long, but it bends toward progress”. Of course, there is always a chance that one of the mistakes we make may be our downfall, for instance our inability to curtail global warming in due time, but chances are we will. Some technologies give us reason to hope, and I am confident that we fill find more in the years and decades to come (nuclear fusion anyone?). And chances are we will eventually get through this particular set of events that currently look indomitable.

This is not (only) wishful thinking: we have gone through comparable episodes before. Humanity has lived through plagues, global wars and tremendous societal changes. And it has always come out the other end — so far. More to the point, it has always come out better: slavery was eventually outlawed, followed by desegregation; health and life expectancy drastically improved over the past century; the number of violent conflicts steadily decreased, despite what current events may suggest…

The overturning of Roe v. Wade, the rise of populism, wars in the Ukraine and the Middle-East are demonstrable steps back. But they should not make us forget all the steps forward that we took before (Me Too, same-sex marriage, Black Lives Matter…) — and the likelihood that we will eventually start walking in the right direction again.

I for one am looking forward to the next US Democratic administration. I will not be surprised if it looks like socialism in action — by US standards that is: despite what Trump thinks, the DSA would like a bit of a joke over on the old continent…