2027

What is currently going on in the world at large is rightfully catching most of our attention, but I would like to spend a moment focusing on a smaller-scale topic: France. Because it is extremely relevant to the general conversation; because I live here; because I might leave…

A few weeks ago, local elections to elect French mayors took place. This is particularly noteworthy because we have over 35 000 cities — even more than we have types of cheese. The key trend everyone was trying to analyze was whether the more extreme parties — the far-right RN and the far-left LFI — would be gaining any ground. The reason for that is — the next presidential election is taking place in a year, in a political climate that has rarely been so uncertain.

As the dust settled, every single party loudly claimed it had made decisive headway. Which is interesting, as there should be some losers in this game. The truer answer is — there were no clear victors either, as changes mostly happened on the margins. Most cities remained more or less where they were, with solid center left and center right strongholds and the top three (Paris, Lyon & Marseille) staying on the left. A few places switched to the far left, most notably Saint-Denis, a 150 000-people strong town just north of Paris. A few others fell to the far right, more discreetly perhaps, but equally importantly as these elected officials will soon designate new members of the French Senate.

The biggest question here still remains: what of next year? As it happens, extreme parties tend to be stronger at the national rather than the local level. As it also happens, the far-right RN is the biggest party in the country, with the highest number of representatives at the National Assembly and a near-guarantee of reaching the second round of the 2027 presidential election — a full year before it is to take place, and without knowing who will even be their candidate. That’s right: longtime leader and party founder’s daughter Marine Le Pen could be ineligible if her conviction for misappropriating public funds is confirmed. In which case 30-year old Jordan Bardella, a man with no degrees or professional experience to speak of, would be the designated candidate. And is currently leading the polls.

In other words, the risk coming from the far right is very real. The far left alternative is another realistic, if weaker, contender. This far-left/far-right conundrum has taken over the political debate in France: what would happen if we were forced to choose between the two? All polls point to the far right winning. Even though RN is objectively a worse option, with extremely xenophobic policies, reactionary stances on most individual rights, an economic agenda that doesn’t make sense and not much attention given to the environment — after all, what is it for? In contrast, LFI offers better alternatives when it comes to social policies or the environment, although it does boast an overly radical program on a number of topics. In short, if I have to choose, I will resolutely vote LFI. But the issue is most polls show the majority won’t. And we would end up with a far right government.

Not much is being said about the more preferable option — any viable moderate candidate. For a while now, the strongest option has been center right Edouard Philippe, a former PM who managed to form a pretty strong following — of which I am part. There is only one issue: when you lead the polls too early, maintaining momentum can prove difficult. Controversies may arise, and with it political risk. Some of the positions Philippe took in recent months created backlash, which is inevitable in today’s chaotic political environment. So what if something goes awry? On the left, a possible option is former president François Hollande, who reentered the National Assembly in 2024 and has slowly been working on a new coalition. Not an absurd choice: he already ran the country, his then-lack of popularity is somewhat in the past and his positions are sensible. Even though his numbers remain low in the polls.

So there you have it: France stands a very real risk of falling to the far right. Even as Hungary shows us the way. Let us not fall prey to the simplistic messaging of demagogic so-called leaders and instead elect a sensible candidate, who might not make miracles but will also not burn the house down. Here’s to cautiously hoping.